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Profile for kroppyer



Name kroppyer
Email Address info@kroppyer.nl
Website URLhttp://sol.kroppyer.nl
AvatarUsers avatar
Posts318
  • Re: VOR, Vestas incident & report.
    Board » General Discussion
    Yes Rod, using more realistic nautical charts would hugely improve the educational value of sol wrt navigation. but we have to be careful that sol remains accessible for the masses, not only the ones that are (a) experienced in navigation or (b) willing to invest time in their navigational skills.

    I'm sure there's a middle way that solves this problem: nautical charts, but no requirement to understand every element of it to successfully sail a race (by using our own very simple and clear "you can sail in this area, not in this area"-two-colour-map as overlay for example)

    While sailing on sailonline, I would really like to have some more detail of the region where I'm sailing. There's lots of reefs, shallows, bridges, etc. etc. that we're missing out on. Problem is, when I'm not online, I really like not having to worry about all these things. I'm not able to spend as much time online during the week as I would be able to spend on deck during and actual IRL sail.

    Then of course, there's the technical side: we need a world map where there is a clear divide between "navigable waters" and "running aground" so that the computer can understand. As far as I know, the map we are currently using (GSHHG) is one of the best that is available at reasonable cost (in this case: free). In the best case, the process of changing to another map is a lot of work and needs a lot of testing. We are slowly moving towards a situation where we hope to be a bit more flexible, but its hard work. At some point in the future it may be possible to show some more detail in the map, but there is a lot to do before we get to that situation.

    --- Last Edited by kroppyer at 2017-11-05 10:58:50 ---
  • Re: Crossing the Finish Line
    Board » Technical Support
    Rankings of an individual race are calculated every minute or so. The DTF is updated more often. So it may be the case that the ranking updates and places boat A on #1 and B on #2, just before they finish. Then B overtakes A and they finish. The leaderboard will update DTF, showing #1: A, #2: B, both with DTF 0 (finished), and after a minute, maybe little more, they switch position to reflect that actual finish order.

    I'm not sure how to explain two changes after DTF has reaches 0, but the main idea is that the actual ordering/ranking of the leaderboard is lagging behind a little bit, which usually isn't a big deal, but when people are finishing close together, the leader board need a couple of minutes to settle.
  • Re: RTW 2017/18 Courses
    Board » General Discussion
    I believe leg 1 of SWR was inspired by an IRL course that was in fact never sailed, I think because the race organisers opted for a different course based on the weather forecast. In my own opinion, our SWR leg 1 wasn't really the typical ocean race leg, but having seen the course for leg 2 (admin perks :) ), the next leg will definitely be the typical Southern Europe to South Africa ocean race. And although I'm not part of SRC, I'm pretty sure the other longer legs of our SWR will be implemented as round the world races are typically done. For the shorter legs I'm sure SRC will also look around for IRL course designs, but since start and finish may not be that far apart, there may not be one single 'typical' course, and SRC will need to make a choice as to what sort of course they want to design before things like weather forecasts are available. This is where we are different from IRL race organisers: we can't do last minute changes (based on weather or whatever), because there are just too many sailors on our races, and almost none have sol as their full time job.
  • Re: Discarding ziggy points or… not.
    Board » Sailonline Race Committee » Championships
    You make some good points, let me clarify.

    200 series. In each series I picked 200 boats and had them sail 40 races (for each new series, I picked a new set of 200 boats, but within a series, I used the same set of boats for the 40 races).

    To determine the "true ranking", simulated 1960 more races in each series, totalling 2000 races in each series, but only the first 40 are used in the analysis.

    Why 40 races? because I thought series with more than 40 races were not too interesting to look at. But yes, my results for a series of x races and that for a series of x+1 races are not at all independent.

    About DNF and bad races, you are correct. Let me give a more accurate description of the probabilities, solving the problem:
    - the probability of having a bad race assuming the boat finishes (between 5 and 15%)
    - the probability of scoring a DNF (between 2 and 8%)
    The actual implementation works as follows: flip a (weighted) coin to determine if the boat scores a DNF, if the boat doesn't score a DNF, flip a different weighted coin to decide between a good and a bad race.

    Although I'm not really surprised by the results, I cannot really explain what's going on either. I'm continuing to investigate.
  • Re: Discarding ziggy points or… not.
    Board » Sailonline Race Committee » Championships
    This is not a rigorous scientific result, but I believe it makes a convincing argument in favour of having one race discarded in a 6 race series.

    The 40' series is a different thing all together. The whole limited boat choice makes it a very different type of race and discarded races have side effects that are not observed in normal race series. The following analysis is not applicable to the 40' series.

    I have simulated 200 series of 2000 races each with 200 boats. I have used to final ranking in the series as the "true" ranking, and after that I have only looked at the first 40 races and compared them to the "true ranking". I have modelled the boats as follows: in a race they have some performance 0-100%. 100% means they couldn't possibly have sailed faster, 0% means they didn't finish. Each boat is defined by 6 parameters:
    - the mean performance when all goes well (90 to 100%)
    - the standard deviation of performance in a good race (0.4 to 2%-point)
    - the mean performance in a bad race (something breaks/goes wrong, but boat can continue racing and finishes): values between 50 and 90%
    - the standard deviation for performance in a bad race (2 to 10%-point)
    - the probability of having a bad race (between 5 and 15%)
    - the probability of scoring a DNF (between 2 and 8%)

    For every simulated series I "created" 200 new boats by picking for each parameter a value uniformly at random in the specified range.

    As a measurement of how good a ranking is, I took the Spearman's footrule distance from the "true" ranking (obtained after 2000 races). The larger this distance, the larger the "ranking error". When this distance is 0, the ranking is exactly equal to the "true tanking".

    Attached is a figure (linear scale and log scale) showing how this "ranking error" decreases as the number of races increases (as you would expect). Up to about 5 races in a series, we see that ranking with no discards gives on average the best ranking. Between about 5 and 12 races in a series, one discard gives a better ranking. When there are 24 or more races in a series, allowing 3 discards yield better rankings than allowing 2 discards.

    How I modelled the boats may not be very accurate. Changing the model and the number of boats in the fleet will likely have an effect on where these "switch-overs" are exactly, but I am confident that the general behaviour is consistent: as the number of races increases, the number of discards should increase as well, but slower.
  • Re: Discarding ziggy points or… not.
    Board » Sailonline Race Committee » Championships
    I'm not SRC, but I think I'm qualified to talk about this. I can join the discussion, but not make the decisions.

    I don't understand your argument João. You're saying one discard in 6 races has a larger impact that 1 discard in 30 races? I agree. Question is, is it a good or a bad impact? Your suggestion of not discarding Series points seems to indicate that you think discards are a bad impact, but I don't understand why you think that is the case.

    I like to believe that discards are there to eliminate the element of "bad luck" from the racing. Having bad luck one more time than the opponent shouldn't give you a 100 point disadvantage, so that's why you allow skippers one bad race every 5 (or so) races. If you have a bad race more than once every 5 (or so) races, you deserve to be punished.

    In a race like the VOR, where we have 7 competitive boats, the punishment for a DNF (because of damage for example) is relatively small, but in a big race on SOL, with 200 entrants of which 100 competitive, the punishment if a DNF (because of connection failure for example) is much larger. So without discards, bad luck had a massive influence of the rankings on SOL compared to some IRL races. The VOR doesn't have discards (at least not last time) because the penalty of bad luck is not too bad meaning there is a reasonable balance between doing well in normal races and managing the risk of having a bad race.

    Anyway, this is an interesting topic, I might do some experimenting like you did in your spreadsheets but on a larger scale. I'll keep you posted when I do.
  • Re: CARIB RUM RUN 2017
    Board » Sailonline Yacht Club
    Ahoy rainbow chasin' parrot! I've salvaged me old pirate ship "kroppyarr". Hope she still sails..

    (I changed my name already and added it to the list)

    arrrrgh, me old matey kroppyarr - yer wessel be a-barnacled but she'm a-welcome!

    --- Last Edited by RainbowChaser at 2017-09-12 15:47:19 ---
  • Re: trim.tcl tool not downloable
    Board » Technical Discussion
    We have been recovering many of Aaron's sol tools and resources and plan to make them available again. However we have not yet been able to recover all of his work. His dropbox account was recently deactivated because of inactivity, and we have tried several ways to regain access to many of the resources he has shared.

    As far as I know we haven't been able to recover trim.tcl. So if anyone has a copy of the file, please to share it with us! If you have any other copies of Aaron's work, let us know too!

    Possibly Bimmer can shed some more light on this, he's been on top of it all more than I have.

    --- Last Edited by kroppyer at 2017-06-19 06:54:57 ---
  • Re: Performance loss
    Board » Technical Discussion
    Hi PresentTense,
    Welcome to sailonline! You have very quickly discovered what I think is the worst aspect of sailonline. Performance loss usually does not really play a role in race on sailonline, but some of the shorter races (sprints/timed races), or those with special circumstances (sailing with tallships, weather that gives a large advantage to hugging the coast, etc.) sometimes bring out the worst of the current implementation of performance loss. In those cases people with a full understanding of how performance loss works in sailonline can leverage their knowledge to gain an advantage over the competition. Of course people with more knowledge and experience should have an advantage over the competition, but this type of knowledge has nothing to do with sailing, so it shouldn't give an advantage. I think everyone would agree. We need to change this.

    So yes, for most of the races (esp. the ocean races) it doesn't really make a different whether or not we have performance loss. But by disabling it, there will be a small number of cases where the fastest route includes tacking/gybing every 10 seconds. Performance loss takes solves almost all of this small number of cases, but as a side effect introduces a smaller number of cases where performance loss itself has an undesirable effect on racing.

    I think the current performance loss is better than no performance loss, but it could definitely do with some improvement. I'm convinced we can make performance loss better, meaning: it prevents tacking/gybing every 10 seconds in all cases and it has less side effects.

    I really hope the current performance loss implementation doesn't affect your enjoyment of the game/simulation. In normal ocean racing is only very rarely that people with a full understanding of performance loss can use it to their advantage (to gain 10 or 20 seconds).
  • Re: Wrong ALT race for Santa Monica Ron Miel Regatta 2017
    Board » Technical Support
    Thanks, I corrected it (but due to caching, it may not have changed immediately)

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Current Races:

Yates Cup 2017
RAYC welcomes Sailonline to the 2017 running of this Category 3+ race from Auckland around the Hauraki Gulf and challenges us to pit our skills against the real fleet who use the course as training for larger offshore events.
Race #1093
INFOfrom brainaid.de
Beneteau First 44.7 Particulars
WX Updates: 0430 / 1030 / 1630 / 2230
Ranking: SYC
ALT. CLIENT:Classic
Race starts: Nov 23rd 21:00 Registration will open soon
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Lake Superior Lights 2017
Sailonline loves lighthouses and our classic race around the famous lights of Lake Superior is a grand tour of 572nm . With fickle weather worldwide, this could be interesting!
Race #1092
INFOfrom brainaid.de
First47.7 Particulars
NAM_AWIP WX Updates:
0245 / 0845 / 1445 / 2045
Ranking: SYC
PRIZE: SMPF
ALT. CLIENT: Classic
Race starts: Nov 17th 18:00 Registration Open!
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Elbetico's Fun Run TIMED Race 2017
This ever popular annual 20nm TIMEDRUN returns to our calendar slightly later in the year than usual. This year, our craft of choice is the SOTO30. Like last year’s Class40, the SOTO30 is a close-winded boat and has the additional upwind feature of a constant optimum TWA when the wind goes above Force 4. Chances are these aspects will stand to you, weaving your way up the mud flats of the upper reaches of the Huelva delta.
RE-REGISTER HERE to race again after finishing a run
Race #910
INFO by brainaid.de
SOTO30 Particulars
WX Updates:
0430 / 1030 / 1630 / 2230
RANKING:
TRCH-SUPSOL-TRQ4-SYC
ALT. CLIENT: Classic
RACE CLOSE: Sunday,
19 November at 2300utc
Race starts: Nov 10th 16:00 Registration Open!
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SWR 17/18 Leg 2 - Lisbon to Cape Town
The second of eleven legs of the 2017/18 Sailonline World Race takes us from Lisbon to Cape Town!
In this leg we must catch the Trade Winds, avoid the Azores High, pick the thinnest spot in the Doldrums to go through, then avoid the St. Helena High and catch the Westerly Storm Track that will get us to Cape Town
The southern race boundary has been set at 51°S to mark the Antarctic Ice Exclusion Zone
Race #1095
INFOfrom brainaid.de
OD65v3 Particulars
WX Updates: 0430 / 1030 / 1630 / 2230
Ranking: OCCH-OCQ4-SUPSOL-SWR-SYC
ALT. CLIENT:Classic
Race starts: Nov 05th 14:00 Registration Open!
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