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Board » Flag Officers » Races » SOL World Race Leg 3 Analysis

Posted by
NZL_Scotsman


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2012-01-15 07:39:12 - SOL World Race Leg 3 Analysis
Leg 3 started 21 hours ago so time to start the new thread. Not too much to report so far, good pressure at a favourable angle meant that the run up the coast and through the Strait of Hormuz was straightforward. Broad reaching with a bit of downwind. Over 350nm have been knocked off already.

The fun starts now though. The leg really has 3 main sections. Down to Sri Lanka and across to Banda Aceh, which looks like fast reaching conditions. Deciding where pick up the best wind strength and direction is the main challenge. The gains will be incremental.

Then the tricky part begins. The Straits of Malacca may only be 600nm but the winds are often light and fickle. As we found out on a recent race, each weather forecast often tells a very different story. Many miles can be lost, but that opens up the chance for passing lanes. The real boats have it even harder, very busy with all sorts of ships. Plenty of hazards in the water too, clearing fouled gear can be expected.

The last 1000nm up to Sanya are not the most travelled route for off shore sailors. Cold and headwinds are rumoured, and the Volvo boats took a real beating here last time around.

We could lay bets on the finish time now. Not sure where my money is, probably about 4 weeks. That assumes we get through Malacca in less than a week though, we could be there for a while. Sleepless nights await.
Posted by
NZL_Scotsman


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2012-01-16 07:15:33 - Re: SOL World Race Leg 3 Analysis
My thought about incremental gains has come off earlier than I expected. Gains for lots of boats ahead of me. I've attached a plot that only shows 76trombones and I. He is one of many boats that sailed closer to land than me, both by holding the southern board longer and then gybing back earlier. I was being conservative gybing early the first time and missed that there would be gains for the latter.

So I sailed a longer slower course, and have lost about 3 hours or 40nm. Annoying, but that is the game. You need to have good strategy, good control and do the small stuff right as well.

We are seeing two groups forming in the fleet. There is a southern group, although it is well spread out, which is below the rhum line. The eastern group is above the rhum line and trying to take a more direct route. So we have speed vs distance. There are top ranked sailors in each group, so obviously there is no clear favourite at the moment.

The weather is still mainly downwind, but there are more reaching conditions than before. So less gybing and more picking angles to achieve the best position. The southern boats will be aiming for stronger trade winds to take them across east. The eastern boats will try and pick good lanes to make progress SE.

So two days in and many to go. At least we are on the water unlike the real boats!
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NZL_Scotsman


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2012-01-18 06:36:11 - Re: SOL World Race Leg 3 Analysis
Almost 4 days into the race and we've knocked off the first 1100nm or so. The fleet is well spread out across the Indian Ocean heading for the southern tip of India and Sri Lanka. Over 450nm separates the boats, which are spread out from SW to NE.

The boats that were furthest NE have been forced to gybe. I've highlighted sassy63 as an example of those that were in this group. They are likely to continue to lose ground to those further south, as their wind is almost downwind so they need to gybe to maintain the course. Dead downwind is much slower than a broad reach.

The boats north but close to the rhum line may not need to gybe, but they will probably have to sail lower than those to the south. At the moment, the extra pressure is balancing the worse angle. But they may be forced to sail close to India and risk light winds, or gybe away. Either way, there is a risk of losing miles.

So the boats south of the rhum line are in the best position. It is not clear where in this wide spread group is better. Those near the rhum will sail a shorter course, but there is a higher risk of a lower angle, or slower winds near the next mark.

For the time being, reasonably straightforward sailing for most and the chance of a decent nights sleep. Next week might not be so easy!
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NZL_Scotsman


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2012-01-19 06:29:12 - Re: SOL World Race Leg 3 Analysis
5 days in and the reach across the Indian Ocean continues. The more recent weather updates favour those near the rhum line. Previous forecasts suggested that they would have to sail low or gybe to make the mark. Now we are expecting to be headed. As the wind comes on the nose, then those in the north will be favoured.

However, who will end up in front is not obvious. There is a risk of lighter winds nearer the coast. So the two related decisions are what angle to sail now and how close to shore to sail at the mark.

The last risk is a few atolls along the way. A close eye needs to be kept for these, as a grounding can easily ruin a race.
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2012-01-20 07:05:27 - Re: SOL World Race Leg 3 Analysis
Day 6 and we are beginning to see some of the variable fickle winds that may haunt us over the next few weeks. The attached plot shows 3 boat traces.

The northernmost is Azur, who still holds the lead (measured as distance to go). Probably not for long though. The wind shadow off India is sucking them in, which can be seen with the tortuous wake. Perhaps they thought there was a wind line near the coast or were going for a short course and hoping to be lucky. Earlier forecasts suggested they might do well. But the hole has appeared and in they drop.

The boat in the middle is Clash, who is leading the central pack. These boats will hit the lead fairly soon. Maybe as soon as a couple of hours. Their position looks pretty good at the moment. Opportunities to come up closer to the coast or bear away and keep clear of the land. There is a second light patch SW of Sri Lanka to watch out for. How stable is it and how far out will it reach?

In the short term the boats furthest south are looking pretty good, including me (the pink track). The pressure and angle are in our favour at the moment and we might get into the stronger pressure first. Medium term is not so clear though. We will need to come up at some point, and when we do, the boats further north will gain.

I'm about 125nm from the next mark off India. There are quite a few ahead of me. Will the picture be clear when we get there, or will it still be wide open as we cross the Bay of Bengal?

--- Last Edited by NZL Scotsman at 2012-01-20 07:10:26 ---
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2012-01-25 07:55:29 - Re: SOL World Race Leg 3 Analysis
I'm a bit late in posting this, but the attached pic was taken after 8 days. At this stage, the fleet were passing south of Sri Lanka.

The stronger pressure in the south has favoured those who have kept clear of the wind shadow of Sri Lanka. They have made more progress than the pack that are close to land.

The pack near land have struggled through several light patches but will now clear the shadow of land and will find stronger wind from now on.

The forecast shows steady NE winds, so we will be tight reaching. However, there are slightly stronger winds in the north. So the north will gain.

How much depends on how the wind shifts and how large the gradient will be. There are times when the gradient is soft, so there will be limited difference. At other times there will be a large difference. Any wind shift to the east will favour those in the north, shifting north will be even, thus helping those in the south.

So the decisions over the next 4 days or so that the bay crossing will take will be very tactical. Head east for a fast crossing or north for gains later?

--- Last Edited by NZL Scotsman at 2012-01-25 08:02:20 ---
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2012-01-25 08:20:41 - Re: SOL World Race Leg 3 Analysis
10 days and the fleet is approaching Indonesia. Thoughts are turning to the Strait of Malacca. Notoriously tricky with light flukey winds. How they will treat us this time will be seen next week.

Many have tacked onto starboard after a long board on port. They are taking advantage of a shift to the east. This will not last long, so this is the last opportunity to make some miles north. The length of the tack depends on tactics and how much space the boat has.

There are a few different strategies being played out at the moment. The boats furthest north were in the pack close to Sri Lanka. They have kept the northern advantage and are deciding when to head SE. They are now picking their way through the Andamans and the Nicobars. They may well continue E to the eastern side of the strait before heading S.

The boats in the middle can easily take the northern route or head towards Palau We now. The choices for those in the south is more limited. Most will tack far enought to make the mark, but probably no more. A longer tack will result in many lost miles to those already in the north - too many for most to stomach. Instead, they will stay south and hope for the weather to become more favourable.

However, each forecast is telling a different story, particularly near the Palau We. That makes the decision difficult. It will not get any easier when in the strait.
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PetrM


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2008-12-31 13:00:19
2012-01-25 14:03:45 - Re: SOL World Race Leg 3 Analysis
Small addition: some boats went north even after rounded Sri Lanka wide.

NZL Scotsman said @ 2012-01-25 08:20:41:
.. The boats furthest north were in the pack close to Sri Lanka..



Posted by
NZL_Scotsman


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2012-01-28 07:36:21 - Re: SOL World Race Leg 3 Analysis
Petr is right, of course, the wise tacked north after taking Sri Lanka wide.
Posted by
NZL_Scotsman


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2012-01-28 08:11:58 - Re: SOL World Race Leg 3 Analysis
Day 13 coming to an end (I think, losing count). We are in the middle of Malacca Strait so maybe the light winds having been playing on my mind.

We are seeing two groups form. About 100 boats have got ahead and a gap has formed behind. The remainder of the fleet is following, perhaps 50nm clear water in between with only a few boats in this space.

Most, if not all, the leading boats went right across to the eastern side of the strait whilst still north of Palau We. They enjoyed good pressure at a decent angle for the first day or so. They separated from the following boats on the same line as the pressure softened. They squeezed through, those behind were caught.

I took the western route. My router said take the hit and go north then east, but I ignored it - to my cost. Part of my thinking was there was a channel close to shore that would allow me to progress south. That channel closed. Maybe not completely, as I stayed in more than 2 kts the whole way. One reason why I'm closer to the from of the second group than further back.

At the same time, the door did not close in the east until later than earlier forecasts. So the east gained and the west lost.

This was not luck on the part of the leaders. They have probably been planning this move for several days in advance. Indeed, the reason to be so far north for so long may not just have been for better pressure crossing the Bay of Bengal, but also to follow this route into the start of the strait.

There will be fewer passing opportunities in the narrower part of the strait towards Singapore. Whether the leading pack stay away or let the rest of us catch up depends on the wind.

As always.

--- Last Edited by NZL Scotsman at 2012-01-28 08:22:27 ---
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